After nearly two months off and with no friendly games to play, you could be forgiven for thinking that the German Bundesliga would have returned with a slow and steady start.
But, according to many of the stats recorded so far, it is clear that the action will be just as high octane until the end of the season as hoped. And that could have a number of ramifications for both the title run-in and the relegation dogfight…
While working with a small sample, and so a pinch of salt should be taken, here are some of the trends that have been recorded so far that could really help with your betting.
Home Advantage Negated
One of the most basic tenets of football, and of team sports in general for that matter, is that the home team will always have an advantage over their visitors. And for that reason, many bettors have an aversion to wagering on the away team.
While there is a semblance of truth to that, the Bundesliga’s return – with matches played behind closed doors remember – has created a fascinating new sub-trend. And that is something you should be considering when you take a look at the football odds from today, with lots of new fixtures from around Europe and father afield being added on a daily basis as the top leagues and cups start to return.
In essence, home advantage appears to have been all but wiped out. In Gameweeks 26 and 27, of the 18 matches played just 17% were won by the home team – as opposed to the division’s season-long average of 43%.
It’s a remarkable statistic, and one that is backed up by the knowledge that more than half of games have been won by the away team. So, the next time you are browsing the betting markets, don’t be afraid of getting behind the visitors.
Goals, Goals, Goals
One of the theories doing the rounds was that a lack of match sharpness would impact upon the number of goals scored in the Bundesliga. Well, the reality has been rather different, and the goal-per-game average has actually gone up.
One possible explanation for that is that away teams are playing with less fear now, which would contribute to a more open game anyway, but another explanatory factor is that the teams have been pressing with less intensity – allowing opponents more space to pick a pass or deliver a cross into the box.
A Pressing Matter
Dating back to Jurgen Klopp’s time at Borussia Dortmund, when he was lauded for his gegenpressing system, German football has been one of the forebearers for the intense pressing game that is now commonplace around the globe.
Most teams cover huge amounts of ground every week as they seek to harry and harass their opposition, and that tends to have a couple of impacts. If you can win the ball back higher up the pitch, it is statistically proven that you have a higher chance of scoring. And if you press you can also stop your opponent’s creative players from having too much time on the ball.
The pressing stats in the Bundesliga have been down since its return, and that is perhaps a result of players having less game-time in their legs – or, quite probably, it’s been a deliberate instruction to preserve energy.
These are just three interesting patterns that have emerged that should help football fans with their betting in the months ahead.